Thursday, November 20, 2014

SRS Ranking CSDHL PeeWee Teams 11-20-2014

By CAYH Editor

Well the experiment with in season power rankings was a hit! But I don't have to tell you that. Since it is much easier to do now that everything is set up, I went ahead and ran the SRS on the Central States Developmental Hockey League's two PeeWee divisions - minor ('03) and major ('02).

If you need a refresher on the SRS, head to the introductory blog on the CSDHL Squirts. If you don't need the background, here is what the column headers represent:

MOV - margin of victory
SOS - strength of schedule
SRS = MOV + SOS

One change of note, there were far more blowouts at the PeeWee level then there were are Squirt, and I instituted a 6 goal cap on the differential mitigate the impact of blowouts on the SRS ranking.

CSDHL PeeWee Minor
RankTeamMOVSOSSRS
1Falcons2.778-0.4502.328
2Express2.273-0.2192.054
3Blues0.3080.5690.877
4Leafs1.300-0.4620.838
5Winnetka0.0000.4100.410
6Hawks-0.7780.588-0.190
7Chesterfield1.091-1.412-0.321
8Rockford-0.4440.081-0.364
9Huskies-0.9000.232-0.668
10Affton-0.300-0.565-0.865
11Sabres-1.3640.417-0.946
12Indy-5.1250.928-4.197
*Rankings include all games through 11/16/2014.


For comparison, I present the standings from CSDHL.org as of 11/16/2014.

RankTeamPTSGPWLTGFGAGoal Diff.
1Express1911911381226
2Leafs1510721382414
3Falcons149720461828
4Chesterfield1411740513120
5Blues141365251474
6Huskies10105502434-10
7Winnetka101145238380
8Rockford894503034-4
9Affton8103523437-3
10Hawks693603239-7
11Sabres4111823146-15
12Indy08080457-53


The SRS ranking of the Hawks is much higher at 6th than their 10th place when ranked by points. This is due to the Hawks playing the 2nd toughest schedule in the division to date. The Hawks played the Leafs shortly after I ran the numbers and sure enough, they won 4-3. The flip side of that coin is that Chesterfield has benefited from playing the weakest schedule and they drop to 7th in the SRS.

Doing a comparative analysis within the SRS, the Falcons and Express are on top with a drop off to the Blues and Leafs then another drop off to Winnetka. A hypothetical perfectly average team would have an SRS of 0.000, and the Hawks come the closest to that team. Chesterfield and Rockford are also in that middle tier.

Next up, we have the PeeWee Majors. The blowouts were particularly frequent in this division. We have an incredibly dominate 14-0 Affton team running roughshod over everyone, and two very weak teams in the Sabres and Indy. This division has really stretched out the SRS with extremes.

CSDHL PeeWee Major
RankTeamMOVSOSSRS
1Affton5.071-0.3434.728
2Bruins2.3750.9783.353
3Chesterfield-0.6001.1210.521
4Falcons-0.4440.9580.514
5Blues0.462-0.1400.321
6Twin Bridges0.429-0.2100.219
7Rockford0.333-0.3200.014
8Peoria-0.154-0.262-0.416
9Cyclones-1.2730.613-0.660
10Jets0.000-0.792-0.792
11Winnetka-0.538-0.790-1.329
12Sabres-2.0000.263-1.737
13Indy-3.8460.068-3.778
*Rankings include all games through 11/16/2014.


Once again, I present the standings from CSDHL.org as of 11/16/2014.

RankTeamPTSGPWLTGFGAGoal Diff.
1Affton2814140011914105
2Blues161374233276
3Peoria121345443430
4Bruins118521361620
5Winnetka11135713643-7
6Rockford11942322193
7Falcons1095402630-4
8Jets91045131310
9Cyclones8114702650-24
10Twin Bridges8732218153
11Sabres5111731749-32
12Chesterfield451221417-3
13Indy31311112390-67


Affton has a goal differential of 105 after 14 games. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!? Ok ok, let's calm down. Looking at the standings by points, we see that the games played for Chesterfield and Twin Bridges is low at 5 and 7 respectively. So we are going to get a lot of movement when we do the SRS. Chesterfield moves up to 3rd place in the SRS thanks to playing the toughest schedule, but with a 5 game sample size I would expect that we will have to wait for the next set of rankings to find where they really belong. Twin Bridges also moves up from 10th by points to 6th in the SRS.

After that Affton team, the Bruins are 2nd in the SRS due to playing the most difficult schedule.  The team with the most beneficial schedule to date is Winnetka, and they tumble from 5th when ranked by points to the basement of the SRS rankings. Everyone else is tightly grouped when compared to the extremes.


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