Tuesday, November 25, 2014

SRS Ranking CSDHL Bantam Teams 11-26-2014

By CAYH Editor

Why rank 9 year olds when there is real hockey being played elsewhere? No, I'm not bitter ... just cheeky. Now that everything is set up and automated, I went ahead and ran the SRS on the Central States Developmental Hockey League's two Bantam divisions - minor ('01) and major ('00).

If you need a refresher on the SRS, head to the introductory blog on the CSDHL Squirts. If you don't need the background, here is what the column headers represent:

MOV - margin of victory
SOS - strength of schedule
SRS = MOV + SOS


One change of note, there were far more blowouts at the PeeWee level than there were at Squirt, and I instituted a 6 goal cap on the differential to mitigate the impact of blowouts on the SRS ranking. That cap is now part of the procedure and will remain in the calculations going forward.

CSDHL Bantam Minor
RankTeamMOVSOSSRS
1Falcons3.455-0.9832.471
2Chesterfield1.889-0.0641.825
3Ice Dogs1.5000.3141.814
4Winnetka1.385-0.0271.358
5Blues1.615-0.8240.791
6Bruins0.6000.0110.611
7Huskies0.417-0.1740.242
8Affton-1.2861.016-0.270
9St. Jude-2.500-0.087-2.587
10Indy-2.7140.032-2.682
11Sabres-3.4620.524-2.937
*Includes all games through 11/25/2014.


For comparison, I present the rankings from CSDHL.org as of 11/25/2014.

RankTeamPTSGPWLTGFGAGoal Diff.
1Ice Dogs21121011442618
2Blues1913931502822
3Bruins1815960504010
4Falcons1811812591643
5Winnetka1513751533122
6Huskies131265136315
7Chesterfield129522361719
8Affton8143923353-20
9Indy61431102160-39
10St. Jude4102802147-26
11Sabres21311201973-54


The big big BIG difference is of course the Falcons in 4th when ranked by points but in 1st when ranked by SRS. Yes, you are correct to note that the SRS loves those high scoring teams. With an SOS in the basement, the Falcons just haven't played anybody yet (or enough anybodies). We will have to wait until December 8 when the Falcons travel to Glacier to play the Ice Dogs to find out who is top dog here. The other mover is Chesterfield, which moves from 7th by points to 2nd in the SRS. Affton has played the toughest schedule to date with an SOS of 1.016. I expect them to move up the standings once they get to some easier competition.

Doing a comparative analysis within the SRS, the Falcons are alone at the top with a drop off to Chesterfield and the Ice Dogs then another drop off to Winnetka. The middle tier has the Bruins and the Blues together near an SRS rating of 0.7. A hypothetical perfectly average team would have an SRS of 0.000, and the Huskies and Affton are equidistant from that mark at 0.242 for the former and -0.270 for the latter.

Moving on to Bantam Major, we have a much smaller division than anything we have looked at so far using the SRS. There are only 9 teams in the table, so there is not much in movement when comparing the following tables.

CSDHL Bantam Major
RankTeamMOVSOSSRS
1Blues2.538-0.1062.432
2Affton1.353-0.4220.930
3Chesterfield0.1820.5460.728
4Bruins1.444-0.8490.596
5Winnetka0.1820.3520.534
6Sabres0.667-0.3330.334
7Leafs0.077-0.132-0.056
8Falcons-1.4620.466-0.995
9Glenview-5.7270.543-5.184
*Includes games through 11/25/2014 but excludes the Glenview vs. Winnetka game that hasn't been recorded.


I again present the rankings from CSDHL.org as of 11/25/2014.

RankTeamPTSGPWLTGFGAGoal Diff.
1Blues24131102552134
2Affton24171034593227
3Winnetka121154226242
4Sabres1212552352114
5Leafs111346333321
6Bruins109432311813
7Chesterfield91124523212
8Falcons8132743149-18
9Glenview0110110782-75


The one big mover is Chesterfield, which has played the toughest schedule to date with an SOS of 0.546. That is good enough for a move up to 3rd in the SRS rankings from 7th in points. The Bruins have benefited the most from the schedule, with an SOS of -0.849.

The 7th ranked Leafs in SRS is closest to our hypothetical average team at -0.056. Normally you would expect that to occur closer to the midpoint of the table. As a result, I expect we will get more stratification in the division as the season progresses. Regardless, this is a very balanced division after the top of the table Blues.


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1 comment:

  1. Forgot to mention this, but BM Minor has 4 strong teams with an SRS > 1. Even with 3 teams with an SRS < -2, which we have seen before, we haven't seen that many above 1 until now. I will watch this to see if it holds up.

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