SRS Ranking CSDHL Bantam Teams 11-26-2014

By CAYH Editor

Why rank 9 year olds when there is real hockey being played elsewhere? No, I'm not bitter ... just cheeky. Now that everything is set up and automated, I went ahead and ran the SRS on the Central States Developmental Hockey League's two Bantam divisions - minor ('01) and major ('00).

If you need a refresher on the SRS, head to the introductory blog on the CSDHL Squirts. If you don't need the background, here is what the column headers represent:

MOV - margin of victory
SOS - strength of schedule
SRS = MOV + SOS


One change of note, there were far more blowouts at the PeeWee level than there were at Squirt, and I instituted a 6 goal cap on the differential to mitigate the impact of blowouts on the SRS ranking. That cap is now part of the procedure and will remain in the calculations going forward.

CSDHL Bantam Minor

Rank	Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	Falcons	3.455	-0.983	2.471
2	Chesterfield	1.889	-0.064	1.825
3	Ice Dogs	1.500	0.314	1.814
4	Winnetka	1.385	-0.027	1.358
5	Blues	1.615	-0.824	0.791
6	Bruins	0.600	0.011	0.611
7	Huskies	0.417	-0.174	0.242
8	Affton	-1.286	1.016	-0.270
9	St. Jude	-2.500	-0.087	-2.587
10	Indy	-2.714	0.032	-2.682
11	Sabres	-3.462	0.524	-2.937

*Includes all games through 11/25/2014.


For comparison, I present the rankings from CSDHL.org as of 11/25/2014.

Rank	Team	PTS	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	Goal Diff.
1	Ice Dogs	21	12	10	1	1	44	26	18
2	Blues	19	13	9	3	1	50	28	22
3	Bruins	18	15	9	6	0	50	40	10
4	Falcons	18	11	8	1	2	59	16	43
5	Winnetka	15	13	7	5	1	53	31	22
6	Huskies	13	12	6	5	1	36	31	5
7	Chesterfield	12	9	5	2	2	36	17	19
8	Affton	8	14	3	9	2	33	53	-20
9	Indy	6	14	3	11	0	21	60	-39
10	St. Jude	4	10	2	8	0	21	47	-26
11	Sabres	2	13	1	12	0	19	73	-54

The big big BIG difference is of course the Falcons in 4th when ranked by points but in 1st when ranked by SRS. Yes, you are correct to note that the SRS loves those high scoring teams. With an SOS in the basement, the Falcons just haven't played anybody yet (or enough anybodies). We will have to wait until December 8 when the Falcons travel to Glacier to play the Ice Dogs to find out who is top dog here. The other mover is Chesterfield, which moves from 7th by points to 2nd in the SRS. Affton has played the toughest schedule to date with an SOS of 1.016. I expect them to move up the standings once they get to some easier competition.

Doing a comparative analysis within the SRS, the Falcons are alone at the top with a drop off to Chesterfield and the Ice Dogs then another drop off to Winnetka. The middle tier has the Bruins and the Blues together near an SRS rating of 0.7. A hypothetical perfectly average team would have an SRS of 0.000, and the Huskies and Affton are equidistant from that mark at 0.242 for the former and -0.270 for the latter.

Moving on to Bantam Major, we have a much smaller division than anything we have looked at so far using the SRS. There are only 9 teams in the table, so there is not much in movement when comparing the following tables.

CSDHL Bantam Major

Rank	Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	Blues	2.538	-0.106	2.432
2	Affton	1.353	-0.422	0.930
3	Chesterfield	0.182	0.546	0.728
4	Bruins	1.444	-0.849	0.596
5	Winnetka	0.182	0.352	0.534
6	Sabres	0.667	-0.333	0.334
7	Leafs	0.077	-0.132	-0.056
8	Falcons	-1.462	0.466	-0.995
9	Glenview	-5.727	0.543	-5.184

*Includes games through 11/25/2014 but excludes the Glenview vs. Winnetka game that hasn't been recorded.


I again present the rankings from CSDHL.org as of 11/25/2014.

Rank	Team	PTS	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	Goal Diff.
1	Blues	24	13	11	0	2	55	21	34
2	Affton	24	17	10	3	4	59	32	27
3	Winnetka	12	11	5	4	2	26	24	2
4	Sabres	12	12	5	5	2	35	21	14
5	Leafs	11	13	4	6	3	33	32	1
6	Bruins	10	9	4	3	2	31	18	13
7	Chesterfield	9	11	2	4	5	23	21	2
8	Falcons	8	13	2	7	4	31	49	-18
9	Glenview	0	11	0	11	0	7	82	-75

The one big mover is Chesterfield, which has played the toughest schedule to date with an SOS of 0.546. That is good enough for a move up to 3rd in the SRS rankings from 7th in points. The Bruins have benefited the most from the schedule, with an SOS of -0.849.

The 7th ranked Leafs in SRS is closest to our hypothetical average team at -0.056. Normally you would expect that to occur closer to the midpoint of the table. As a result, I expect we will get more stratification in the division as the season progresses. Regardless, this is a very balanced division after the top of the table Blues.


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